As rebels seize management in Syria after greater than a decade of warfare, the long run is unsure. Key considerations embody al-Assad’s allies, regional dynamics, and potential for additional battle.
In gentle of the dramatic scenes in Syria and the acceleration of occasions over the course of a handful of days, evidently the Center Jap nation is about to enter an ambiguous section, opening a myriad of potentialities.
Simply trying on the map of the nation, the area and even past, there are a number of query marks that will not be answered quickly.
Who will rule the nation? What in regards to the ousted Bashar al-Assad regime’s allies in Tehran, Beirut and Moscow? What about his bitter enemies, and what destiny awaits Syria after al-Assad?
Syria’s gentle underbelly, Lebanon, is preoccupied with its inner issues, the devastating Israeli warfare that claimed the lives of almost 4,000 individuals.
Al-Assad’s former ally Hezbollah is exhausted by the warfare it fought towards Tel Aviv, which ended with the announcement of a fragile 60-day ceasefire that witnessed every day violations from the Israeli facet which have to this point resulted in destruction, deaths and accidents even among the many Lebanese military, which is meant to supervise the implementation of the ceasefire.
With the change within the political scene in Damascus, the availability line from Iran to Hezbollah by way of Syria will probably be reduce off or, at greatest, not be straightforward.
Syria will not be the yard of Hezbollah, which was essential to al-Assad’s restoration of management in his warfare towards armed opposition teams after it intervened within the battle in 2013 below the pretext of defending Lebanese territory from assaults by these teams, in addition to defending the shrine of Sayyida Zainab within the outskirts of Damascus, which has a particular standing amongst Shiite Muslims and which, if compromised, would have precipitated additional sectarian rigidity and rivalry between Sunnis and Shiites.
Turkey and Israel to revenue?
Turkey has tried to distance itself from the spectacular advances of armed teams in current days and has emphasised that it’s not concerned within the operation.
That is regardless of the assist it has given to the opposition because the starting of the rebellion towards al-Assad’s rule, opening its borders to displaced Syrians on the time.
Ankara has additionally hosted opposition figures and supplied assist for the Syrian Nationwide Military. But, an answer to the dilemma of the estimated three million Syrian refugees in Turkey if safety is restored in Syria and the nation avoids getting into a brand new cycle of chaos remains to be unclear.
In the meantime, there’s additionally Israel. The neighbouring nation occupied the contested Golan Heights area of Syria for greater than 57 years earlier than saying its annexation. Washington recognised this annexation below the earlier Trump administration regardless of clear worldwide resolutions that take into account the Golan Heights to be occupied territory.
Two days in the past, Israel mobilised its air and floor forces within the Golan Heights in anticipation of any emergency and has since seized management of the whole territory.
Israel is more likely to carefully monitor what is going on in Syria, particularly if a regime that emerges is inward-looking and preoccupied with its inner issues and doesn’t declare its proper to the Golan Heights or attain the shores of Lake Tiberias.
Iran, the largest loser
As for Iran, it has misplaced an essential and very important ally within the area.
The historical past of relations between the 2 nations goes again many a long time earlier than Bashar al-Assad even got here to energy.
Pursuits converged between an Islamist regime that emerged from the Khomeini-led revolution that toppled the shah in 1979 and a secular nationalist regime led by the Ba’ath Social gathering headed by Bashar al-Assad’s father, Hafez.
On the time, Hafez al-Assad supported Tehran in its warfare towards Iraq within the Nineteen Eighties. The 2 sides have been united of their hostility to the regime of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and their rivalry with Washington, which was offering army assist to Iraq in its eight-year warfare towards Iran within the Nineteen Eighties.
There may be additionally the position Quds Drive commander Basic Qassem Soleimani — who was killed by a US raid in Baghdad in early 2020 — performed in stopping the autumn of the regime and managing the army operations in Aleppo in 2015, the place he personally led the battle to interrupt the siege on Syria’s largest metropolis and the nation’s financial capital, and was then referred to as by the opposition the Butcher of Aleppo.
By shedding its ally in Damascus, Tehran is the largest loser within the area. Nevertheless, it appears to be taking a cautious stance on current developments, mirrored in timid and measured statements on the state of affairs in Syria.
Additionally it is preoccupied with different challenges and information, specifically the deepening hostility between it and Israel and the US, which stands on the brink of a brand new administration led by Republican President-elect Donald Trump. With the nuclear file nonetheless unresolved and buckling below US and worldwide sanctions, the Tehran regime is apprehensive in regards to the subsequent stage.
This has been additional made seen by Trump’s nomination of veteran diplomat Brian Hook, identified for his hard-line positions in the direction of Iran since President George W Bush’s period, to be the particular envoy in command of the nation file.
What is going to Moscow do?
Famously, Moscow stays one of the vital essential stakeholders in what is going on in Syria.
The departure of al-Assad may very well be a significant blow to the Kremlin, which has army websites in Syria. A very powerful of those are the Hmeimim Air Base, positioned southeast of town of Latakia, and the Tartus naval base.
These two websites gave Russia entry to the Mediterranean waters from its jap financial institution, serving its pursuits within the area and Africa as effectively.
Vladimir Putin’s Russia has supplied important army assist to the regime since 2015, with some 4,000 troops on the bottom. This assist, below the banner of preventing the so-called IS and extremist teams, has been essential in sustaining al-Assad’s rule.
The autumn of the regime would imply that Moscow would not have a foothold in Syria, given the deep-seated hostility of armed teams. Geostrategically, it will be a blow to Putin, who has been preventing a warfare in Ukraine for almost three years.
These developments could also be a think about resolving the warfare in Ukraine and additional affect the battle between NATO and Western nations on the one hand and Russia on the opposite.
Fears of a Libyan or Afghan mannequin
Now that armed teams led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham — previously Jabhat al-Nusra — have taken management of the federal government in Syria, and with the totally different ideological agendas of those teams and the affiliation of a few of them with regional and worldwide powers, the state of affairs stays hazy, if not bleak.
Nobody can say with certainty that the nation won’t be divided and a democratic transition of energy won’t happen or whether or not Syria can keep away from a destiny much like that of Libya since its rebellion towards the Muammar al-Gaddafi regime on 17 February 2011.
The North African nation has been divided for years between an internationally recognised authorities primarily based in Tripoli within the west and a authorities within the east led by Libya’s strongman, Area Marshal Khalifa Haftar, additional contributing to regional and worldwide polarisation.
Thus far, all makes an attempt have didn’t heal the rift between the 2 sides and put an finish to the rivalry that has resulted in a whole lot of deaths and the imposition of two governments, two central banks, armed forces and militias, dilapidated infrastructure and a collapsed economic system regardless of the nation’s huge oil wealth.
One other concern is the repeat of the Afghanistan state of affairs, the place the Taliban surprisingly took full management on 15 August 2021, and the imposition of a hardline Islamist regime there following the withdrawal of the US and different worldwide forces.
What if Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which spearheaded the overthrow of the al-Assad regime, takes management of the levers of presidency in a multi-confessional and multi-ethnic nation populated by Kurds, Alawites, Druze, Shiites and Sunnis?
That is along with the Christians who kind an integral a part of Syria’s demographic material, as their ancestors have been the primary to embrace this faith and observe Jesus’ teachings.
The brief reply is, it is too early to inform.
Because the rebels kind their first provisional authorities freed from the al-Assad household in additional than 5 a long time and a peaceable switch of energy takes place wherein the nation, the nation now faces an immeasurably troublesome activity of therapeutic the injuries of the civil warfare and turning the web page on totalitarian rule.
