An aerial view of the 2021 eruption of the Cumbre Vieja volcano on La Palma island. Cumbre Vieja might, in concept, set off a ‘Megatsunami’ with waves that would attain the US. Nonetheless, this situation will not be presently thought-about seemingly.
Credit score: Shutterstock, Stanislav Simonyan
It would sound just like the plot of a blockbuster catastrophe movie – however scientists have lengthy warned {that a} volcano on a Spanish island might in concept unleash a large wave that travels all the best way throughout the Atlantic.
We’re speaking about La Palma, a part of the Canary Islands, the place consultants have studied what would possibly occur if a part of the island’s volcano, Cumbre Vieja, have been to break down into the ocean. Might it occur? Technically, sure. Seemingly to occur anytime quickly? Let’s take a look at the info.
The volcano with a wobbly flank
The worry centres on the western slope of Cumbre Vieja, the identical volcano that erupted in 2021, displacing hundreds of residents and overlaying huge swathes of land in lava.
However the larger menace – in accordance with some earlier research – is what would occur if a large chunk of the volcano’s western flank slid into the ocean in a single go. That collapse might displace an enormous quantity of water, doubtlessly sending large tsunami waves racing throughout the Atlantic.
This concept was made well-known by a 2001 research led by Dr. Simon Day and Dr. Steven Ward, who warned of a “potential catastrophic collapse” producing a so-called megatsunami. They predicted waves of as much as 25 metres hitting elements of the jap US coast, with extra excessive heights close to the supply.
“Our mannequin predicted waves travelling so far as the Americas,” mentioned Dr. Day in his authentic paper (College Faculty London, 2001). “However it is a worst-case situation, not a forecast.”
Will it occur? Scientists burst Netflix’s large wave bubble
A Spanish wave so large it washes out New York? It’s the stuff of catastrophe flicks – and now, Netflix dramas. In a single current collection, a household holidaying within the Canary Islands will get caught in a volcanic chain of chaos as La Palma’s Cumbre Vieja collapses, triggering a “megatsunami” that surges throughout the Atlantic and swallows complete coastlines. Gripping telly. Complete nonsense.
High volcanologists have weighed in to set the document straight – they usually’re not shopping for the large wave hype. “The eruption and subsequent speedy collapse of the island depicted within the collection isn’t a believable situation that scientists are involved about,” wrote researchers from the College of Liverpool and College of Waikato in The Dialog in January.
The science has moved on for the reason that headline-grabbing 2001 “megatsunami” paper by Simon Day and Steven Ward. Up to date simulations, together with a 2008 research by tsunami knowledgeable Dr Stephan Grilli, present that if the volcano did collapse into the ocean (which, by the best way, is feasible however not going anytime quickly), the waves would attain the US East Coast at simply 1–2 metres excessive. That’s no biblical wipeout – that’s a tough day on the seaside.
As for these nearer to the motion, just like the Canary Islands or West Africa, waves might hit heights of 10 to 30 metres – no small splash, however nothing just like the cinematic tidal monster smashing by Occasions Sq..
Scientists now consider any collapse would most likely occur in slow-motion, in phases, not as one big plunge. So, the possibilities of a sudden doomsday wave? Slim.
Consultants warn that whereas the Netflix drama would possibly make for edge-of-your-seat leisure, it additionally spreads misinformation. And when communities are nonetheless rebuilding from the real-life 2021 eruption, scaremongering doesn’t assist.
New 2025 analysis sheds gentle on magma motion
Simply when we thought Cumbre Vieja had been filed beneath ‘debunked’, science delivered a twist. A brand new 2025 research revealed its magma began stirring as much as 15 years earlier than the 2021 eruption – a lot sooner than anticipated – and worse nonetheless, it will probably transfer silently, with out triggering quakes.
Scientists have warned that whereas a Megatsunami occasion is unlikely, as we speak’s detection methods would possibly miss the indicators of an eruption until upgraded. It pays to not get cocky.
So sure, Cumbre Vieja’s a volcano price watching – however don’t go grabbing a surfboard in New York simply but.
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