Republicans Could Have a Temporary Zero-Seat Majority in the House

Contents

Florida’s 1st District Florida’s sixth District New York’s twenty first District Penalties

The departures of Matt Gaetz, Mike Waltz, and Elise Stefanik will convey the bulk right down to zero seats. Any extra might imply that Democrats take the bulk.

WASHINGTON–When the Home of Representatives returns on Jan. 3, 2025, to start the 119th Congress for a two-year time period, Republicans will begin out with a slim majority.

Although the social gathering received 220 seats within the Home, giving them a three-seat margin over the bulk mark of 218, this quantity is ready to say no in January. The drop in seats might imperil the GOP’s means to cross laws and, presumably, flip management of the Home to the Democratic Social gathering.

Beneath are the anticipated vacancies within the Home, in addition to the method for filling them.

Florida’s 1st District

This district, overlaying many of the Florida panhandle, was represented by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) for seven years—till Nov. 13, 2024. On that day, Gaetz resigned from workplace following the announcement that President-elect Donald Trump had nominated him to function U.S. Legal professional Common within the incoming administration. Whereas supported by some conservatives, the nomination was additionally met with some bipartisan criticism, given allegations of misconduct in opposition to Gaetz contained in a Home Ethics Committee report. Opposition from GOP senators essential for affirmation led Gaetz to withdraw from consideration per week later.

Regardless of his resignation from the 118th Congress, Gaetz was elected to the 119th Congress, and he might, theoretically, take his seat within the Home. Although Gaetz has introduced that he’d decline to serve within the new Congress, his current social media submit instructed he may change his thoughts.

On Dec. 23, the Ethics Committee launched its report on an investigation that accused Gaetz of getting intercourse with a minor, soliciting prostitutes, utilizing medicine, and violating Home guidelines. Gaetz has denied any wrongdoing and has not been criminally charged.

On Nov. 13, Home Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) instructed The Epoch Instances he had requested Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to start the method of a particular election for Florida’s 1st District as a result of the U.S. Structure doesn’t allow governors to make short-term appointments to the Home to fill a emptiness, because it does for the Senate.

DeSantis issued an government order on Nov. 22 to name a particular major election within the district on Jan. 28, 2025, adopted by a particular basic election on Apr. 1, 2025. If there is no such thing as a contest within the major for a acknowledged social gathering’s nomination, the particular basic election will likely be held on the first date—Jan. 28 on this case. Gaetz’s seat has a Cook dinner Partisan Voting Index (PVI) rating of R+19, which makes it probably the most Republican district in Florida.

At a minimal, it signifies that Gaetz’s seat will likely be vacant for between 25 and 90 days from Jan. 3, 2025, the day the brand new Congress convenes for the primary time. This can convey the Home Republican Convention’s power from 220 to 219, and all the Home’s power right down to 434. The bulk mark will stay unchanged at 218, though it means Republicans could have a two-seat majority.

Florida’s sixth District

This district, overlaying parts of northeastern Florida alongside the Atlantic coast, is at the moment represented by Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.), who was appointed by Trump to function his nationwide safety adviser on Jan. 20, 2025, the day he’s inaugurated. Regardless of its elevation to cupboard rank, the place doesn’t require Senate affirmation, which implies Waltz will take workplace instantly upon being sworn in. Therefore, Waltz has resigned from Congress, efficient Jan. 20.

As a result of Congress convenes on Jan. 3, Waltz will be part of the 119th Congress, to which he was elected on Nov. 5, and can serve for under 17 days. Like with the first District, DeSantis has issued an government order calling a particular election, which will likely be held in line with the identical schedule as the first district.

The main Republican candidate for the seat, which has a Cook dinner PVI rating of R+14, is state Sen. Randy High-quality, who represents the realm within the Florida Senate. Trump has endorsed High-quality, as have U.S. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and the three leaders of the Home Republican Convention—Johnson, Majority Chief Steve Scalise (R-La.), and Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.). High-quality is working in opposition to two different GOP candidates.

Therefore, just like the first District, Waltz’s seat will likely be vacant from eight to 70 days from Jan. 20, 2025. This can convey the Home Republican Convention’s power from 219 to 218 and all the Home’s power right down to 433. At this level, the bulk mark will change to 217 members, and Republicans could have a one-seat majority.

New York’s twenty first District

This district, overlaying a big portion of upstate New York from the border with Canada right down to Saratoga, is at the moment represented by Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), chair of the Home Republican Convention. Trump has nominated Stefanik to function the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, with Cupboard rank. The place requires Senate affirmation.

If Stefanik is confirmed, she might want to resign from Congress. The uncertainty of a timeline for affirmation hearings and a remaining vote signifies that Stefanik is predicted to affix the 119th Congress on Jan. 3, 2025.

Ought to Stefanik resign, New York Public Officers Regulation requires the governor to situation a proclamation of a particular election not more than 10 days after the resignation takes impact. There will likely be no major election; the district’s acknowledged social gathering committees will choose the nominees. A particular basic election should then be held inside 70 to 80 days of the proclamation’s issuance.

Therefore, it’s troublesome to foretell when Stefanik’s seat will change into vacant and the way lengthy such a emptiness might final. If she resigns earlier than particular elections are held for Florida’s two vacant Home seats, the power of the Home Republican Convention will decline from 218 to 217, and all the Home’s power right down to 432. At this level, the bulk mark will stay unchanged at 217 members, and Republicans could have a zero-seat majority.

Penalties

The short-term discount of the bulk to zero seats will likely be detrimental for the Home Republican Convention. To cross laws, they’ll require the unanimous assist of each member of the convention. Through the 118th Congress, acquiring such unanimity was a tall order, and a few conservative members, largely from the Home Freedom Caucus, voted with Democrats to convey down GOP initiatives.

A consequential vote occurred on Oct. 3, 2023, when eight Republicans voted with Democrats to take away then-Home Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) from workplace. Thereafter, with a four-seat majority, some Republicans regularly threatened to convey a “movement to vacate the chair” in opposition to Johnson. The one such effort—launched by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.)—failed after Home Democrats voted to desk it.

In sum, the opposition of just some Home GOP members might imperil the Trump administration’s legislative agenda, which a majority of Home Republicans are looking for to enact. Already, Trump has referred to as for major challenges within the 2026 midterm elections in opposition to GOP members who’ve disagreed with him, akin to Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas).

If every other Republican members past Stefanik resign, or die, throughout the 119th Congress, and the Democratic Social gathering wins particular elections, the GOP might lose management of the Home.

The Home Democratic Caucus at the moment has 215 members and desires to realize simply three seats to achieve a majority within the full 435-member physique. Ought to that happen, the social gathering might efficiently cross a movement to vacate the chair, set up Minority Chief Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) because the speaker of the Home, and cross a brand new Home guidelines bundle in addition to restructure standing committees to have Democratic majorities.