The highly effective shifts shaking the geopolitical order, from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to the commerce warfare unleashed by Donald Trump, will affect Iceland’s plan to carry a referendum on EU accession by 2027, Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir has mentioned whereas stressing the necessity to have a “balanced” dialogue in regards to the essential resolution.
“Earlier than 2027, we need to see if the nation needs to reopen these (accession) negotiations. And I am certain the present geopolitical scenario will have an effect on it,” Frostadóttir informed Euronews throughout an official go to to Brussels on Wednesday.
“My largest concern is that we (will not) be capable of have an excellent debate about what it means to open the negotiations, that we’ll have a polarised debate about this.”
Requested if Iceland would really feel safer contained in the bloc, the prime minister mentioned the nation already felt protected “the place we’re proper now” and steered deliberations on membership embody a wider vary of subjects, corresponding to commerce, financial system, finance and tradition.
“The EU is not a defence alliance in and of itself, regardless that it is constructing itself up,” she mentioned, referring to the bloc’s €800-billion rearmament initiative.
“We must always be part of the EU as a part of a broader image. I do not need to drive our EU accession talks based mostly on worry,” she added.
“However in fact, safety goes to return up. And, you realize, we would see lots of modifications within the coming weeks and months that may have an effect on this.”
Iceland submitted its first utility to hitch the EU in 2009 and opened negotiations with Brussels the next 12 months. Nonetheless, the bid was withdrawn in 2015. Nonetheless, the island stays a part of the Schengen Space and the European Financial Space (EEA), and its laws is carefully aligned with the bloc’s guidelines.
Frostadóttir’s administration, which took workplace in December final 12 months, goals to place the query of whether or not to renew accession talks to a referendum no later than 2027. Her authorities has additionally mentioned it will arrange a panel of impartial specialists to look at the potential benefits and downsides of adopting the euro.
“The final time we went via this course of, there wasn’t an preliminary vote asking the general public whether or not they wished to start out this course of,” Frostadóttir mentioned. “I believe that was a mistake.”
Help for EU membership amongst Icelandic residents has steadily grown.
A ballot by the agency Prósent launched in January confirmed 45% of respondents in favour of becoming a member of the bloc, with 35% opposed and 20% neither for nor in opposition to. In the meantime, the next share of 58% backed the celebration of a referendum on the resumption of accession talks and 53% have been beneficial to adopting a brand new forex.
Underneath Trump’s lengthy shadow
Iceland, like different European nations, is at the moment feeling the squeeze of the fronts opened on the East by Russia’s aggression and on the West by Trump’s disruptive insurance policies.
The White Home has slapped the rich nation of lower than 400,000 folks with the baseline 10% tariff. This implies it has been spared from the so-called “reciprocal tariffs” that Trump has imposed on the “worst offenders”, which range in depth. The “reciprocal” charges went into impact on Wednesday morning.
The EU has been hit with a 20% fee, which Brussels considers “neither justified nor credible”. The European Fee needs to discover a “negotiated answer” with the Trump administration however has vowed to retaliate arduous if the negotiations fail. The first raft of countermeasures is ready to be authorized on Wednesday afternoon.
For its half, Iceland will chorus from partaking in a tit-for-tat.
“We’re not going to reply with our personal tariffs. We imagine in free commerce. We’re a small financial system,” Frostadóttir mentioned within the interview. “Hopefully we’ll see these tariffs go down.”
“Our largest concern now could be an escalation of this as a result of, clearly, most of our commerce goes to Europe. We’re very pushed by exports and imports. And so something that may have an effect on costs and the way in which we do enterprise goes to have an effect on our financial system,” she added.
The Prime Minister mentioned she revered the “undeniable fact that the EU must put its foot down” and reveal “power” in opposition to Washington however insisted that any countermeasure ought to keep away from inflicting ache on the bloc’s neighbours.
“We additionally want a transparent message from the EU that in addition they respect the connection with its essential buying and selling companions,” she mentioned. “It is necessary that the EU exhibits that we’re really companions within the inner market, that commerce will not be affected.”
Frostadóttir additionally weighed in on the threats posed by Trump’s expansionist agenda, specifically his acknowledged need to annex Greenland, the sprawling mineral-rich island that belongs to the Kingdom of Denmark. Trump has not refused to rule out the usage of financial coercion or army power to grab the semi-autonomous territory.
“It is regarding. I’ll say it is gravely regarding,” the prime minister mentioned.
“We’re an entirely Arctic nation. The Arctic is our residence. It is not only a idea in worldwide relations for us. It is the place we reside. And we have now very sturdy ties to the Greenlandic folks. So that is of grave concern.”
Tensions round Greenland reached a brand new peak final week when US Vice President JD Vance and his spouse Usha Vance visited the territory with out being invited by the native authorities. Vance excoriated Denmark for having “underinvested” in Greenland and mentioned the US had “no different possibility” than to extend its presence on the island.
“Our message to Denmark could be very easy: You haven’t carried out an excellent job by the folks of Greenland,” Vance mentioned.
The Icelandic prime minister mentioned this “kind of discuss” shouldn’t be “thought of respectable” and expressed assist for Greenland’s proper to self-determination. She additionally raised the alarm about Russia’s rising presence within the Arctic area.
“Small international locations like Iceland thrive on the truth that we have now worldwide legislation, that borders are revered,” she mentioned.
The Arctic is “speculated to be a peaceable zone. That is at all times the way in which we have tried to maintain it. Nonetheless, we will not be naive about the truth that there are lots of pursuits concerned.”
In lower than three months, Trump’s strategy to commerce, Greenland and Russia’s warfare on Ukraine has plunged EU-US relations into an all-time low. The transformation has left international locations within the bloc’s periphery, like Iceland, Norway and the UK, caught within the center.
“Iceland actually thrives on that transatlantic unity being in place,” the prime minister mentioned.
“It is altering. It is altering for certain,” she admitted. “That uncertainty is uncomfortable. It’s uncomfortable for lots of people.”
